Data & Analysis

The UK Fiscal Observatory: 2025/26

A comprehensive, interactive breakdown of how the government raises £1.23 trillion, where it spends £1.29 trillion, and who exactly carries the burden.

Updated: November 2025 Forecast Sources: OBR, ONS, HMRC

1. The Macro Picture: Understanding the Structural Deficit

To understand the UK’s public finances, one must look at both sides of the ledger simultaneously. For the 2025/26 financial year, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that the government will collect £1,232 billion in taxes, but it plans to spend £1,295 billion. The difference leaves a shortfall of approximately £63 billion.

This gap represents a structural deficit. Hover over the allocator below to see exactly how these massive numbers trade off against one another.

Money In (Taxes)

£63bnDeficit
£421bnOther Receipts
£97bnCorp Tax
£180bnVAT
£205bnNat. Insurance
£329bnIncome Tax

The Fiscal Trade-Off

Hover over or tap any block on the left or right to reveal the hidden connections between taxes and spending.

Money Out (Costs)

£454bnOther Spending
£61bnDefence
£98bnDebt Interest
£112bnEducation
£202bnHealth (NHS)
£368bnWelfare

2. Money In: The Taxation Landscape

The interactive explorer below breaks down the £1.23 trillion revenue stream. Click on the main categories to drill down into the specific taxes that fund the state.

TOTAL
£1,232bn
Click to Reset

Total Revenue

Forecast£1,232 bn
Per Household£42,500

Total forecasted receipts for the UK public sector.

💡
OBR Key Insight
Tax as a share of GDP is forecast to rise to a post-war high of 38.3% by 2030.

3. The Burden: Who Actually Pays?

Breaking down tax revenue by demographics reveals that public finances rely heavily on a surprisingly specific slice of the population.

Who Pays Income Tax? (Age & Gender)

Who bears the burden? (Income Group)

Share of total Income Tax paid by population slice.

The Progressive Peak vs. The Regressive Reality

The UK operates a highly “progressive” direct tax system: the top 10% of earners contribute a staggering 60% of the entire Income Tax bill. However, indirect taxes—like VAT and fuel duty—tell the opposite story.

The “Hidden” Tax Bill (VAT & Duties)

Indirect taxes paid by household income decile (Poorest to Richest).


4. Money Out: Analyzing Government Expenditure

Explore the chart below to see the sheer scale of Welfare and NHS funding compared to “traditional” state functions like Defence, Transport, and the Justice system.

TOTAL
£1,295bn
Click to Reset

Total Spending

Forecast£1,295 bn
Per Household£45,280

Total forecasted managed expenditure for the UK.

💡
OBR Key Insight
Total spending remains at historically high levels (approx. 44% of GDP).

Methodology: Macro figures from OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook (Nov 2025). Demographics from HMRC SPI and ONS Effects of Taxes, uprated to align with 2025/26 totals.